A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
